Imperial Japan had no real tradition of democracy, either. Matt Gurney: I think the point Lorne is speaking to re: traditions of democracy is correct, but incomplete. But for now, things are going to look a lot like they always have, as much because of the threat from radical Islam as any other reason. It may well be that over time democracy will grow, bit by bit in the Arab world. I agree with Kelly that the Arab world is unlikely to go back to the way it was, where citizens never questioned their leaders and never imagined overthrowing them.
But real, Western-style democracy is not easy, as the Egyptians and others are finding out. Because it is all we have ever known, we take it for granted. My point is, democracy seems like the natural state of affairs to us. Lorne Gunter: I remember after the fall of Saddam Hussein, when Iraqis failed to break into full-fledged democracy, that commentators who had opposed the war sneered “told ya so.” Iraq had no history of rule-of-law democracy, so how could the Americans have expected them to embrace an unknown system of government when their old regime crumbled? Unlike the French, for instance, or the Germans after liberation during the Second World War – both of whom simple reverted to the democratic systems they knew before the Nazis – the Iraqis had no similar tradition to fall back on. Not that they’re paragons of freedom, but when people realize what’s possible, it’s hard to hold them back. China was once as autocratic (if not more so) than any of the Mideast countries, as was the Soviet Union, yet both progressed considerably once the door was opened to change. It may be that none of these countries attains the goal of a freely elected government very soon, but it’s seems unlikely they’ll go back to what they had before. Bashar Assad is reduced to murdering his people to keep them in line. Tunisia dumped its president, Yemen chased its leader to Saudi Arabia, Muammar Gaddafi has been badly gored and Mubarak is a sad figure reduced to seeking sympathy from his hospital bed (and not getting much of it). Unfortunately, at this point the only way is through bloodshed on a considerable scale. The Arab Spring may not have introduced democracy across the Middle East, but it has taught people there a vital lesson: governments can be gotten rid of, and they have the power to do it. Kelly McParland in Toronto: I think you’re both being too pessimistic. As of now, the only thing that’s really different is the instability, which obviously presents a lot of dangers all its own. That’s why I’ll happily concede that Egypt has seen a lot of dramatic changes this year, while at the same time answering the original question with “Not really.” The more things changed, the more they’ve seemed to stay the same. No one knows if this will be good or bad.” Forgive my cynicism, but I suspect our one-year-younger selves would absorb that summary of 2011’s geopolitcal events and go, well, yeah.
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I mean, let’s use our hypothetical time machine and go back 12 months and explain what’s happened in generalities: “Some Arab regimes have seen a lot of political instability, some leaders have been overthrown, the military has cracked down on the people, and the Western world has intervened in an oil-rich Arab nation with military force. And even when Tunisia was going up in flames, few would have guessed how many regimes would topple or be destabilized.īut I’m not sure the Middle East has changed that much, really.
Lorne is right: Few would have guessed that Mubarak would fall at all, let alone so completely and spectacularly. Matt Gurney in Toronto: Maybe it’s just because I listened to a lot of The Who last weekend, but “meet the old boss, same as the new boss” seems to apply. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.
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